With better screening, awareness, and treatments, the outlook for cancer patients has improved substantially over the past 50 years. A new study highlights just now much improvement there has been, but it also shows that these advancements may be slowing and that some cancers are still just as deadly.

Researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) recently studied how 10-year survival rates have changed for cancer patients between 1971 and 2018 in England and Wales. The data involved more than 10 million patients from cancer databases in both countries. Cancer Research UK funded the study, with the goal of helping guide national cancer policy.

The findings, published in The Lancet Regional Health – Europe, highlighted successes and areas for improvement. First, the estimated 10-year survival rate across all types of cancer was higher for those diagnosed in 2018 (49.8%) than the one-year survival rate in the early 1970s (46.5%). The 10-year survival rate then was also only 23.7%.

However, while progress was still strong between 2000-01 and 2005-06 – a 4% increase in survival rates – it has stalled in more recent years, only increasing by 1.4% between 2010-11 and 2015-16. Researchers say this may have to do with longer waits for diagnosis and treatment, which shows the need for a robust national cancer plan.

Claudia Allemani, study co-author and Professor of Global Public Health at LSHTM, says, “For patients diagnosed in 2018, the [Cancer Survival Index] for all cancers combined at 10 years after diagnosis is now higher than the CSI at one year for those diagnosed during 1971–72. That is a remarkable improvement, but allowing this trend to stall will have devastating consequences.”

In addition to the stalled progress, there were substantial disparities based on the type of cancer a person develops. Breast, colorectal, and cervical cancer patients have a much brighter outlook these days, likely due to better screening allowing for early detection, as well as more awareness and treatment advances.

However, cancers of the esophagus, stomach, lung, brain, and pancreas haven’t seen much survival improvement since the 1970s, the researchers say. For all of those, the 10-year survival rate in England and Wales is still under 20%, dipping to below 5% for pancreatic cancer. Five-year survival rates for these cancers in the United States are also low, particularly for small cell lung (9% across all stages), pancreatic (13%), and esophageal (22%). These forms of cancer are harder to detect and treat.

Cancer Research UK’s chief executive Michelle Mitchell says, “Thanks to research, most patients today are far more likely to survive their cancer than at any point in the past. But the reality is that this progress is slowing - and for some cancers, it never got going in the first place.

“The upcoming National Cancer Plan for England must include commitments to spot more cancers earlier, as well as backing research into new treatments so that each patient, regardless of their diagnosis, can hope for more moments with the people they love.”

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